La Niña is no longer in the fall winter forecast

This summer, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 12 month outlook included the probability, but not certainty of La Nina developing in the Fall. We discussed that in our latest newsletter that recently went out. However, in USACE’s new October outlook which came out after the newsletter went to print, “The El Niño Southern Oscillation index is no longer forecasted to develop into a LA Niña for the fall and winter.”

Regional weather prediction has no certainty with so many factors affecting it. For water levels, NOAA’s computer simulation predictions depends on many different inputs, the most important being overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, and rainfall induced runoff. In it’s Oct 12 month outlook, NOAA is saying “[El Niño Southern Oscillatio] or ENSO-neutral conditions exist and the forecast is favoring that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the winter.”

See what the October 2016, 12 month outlook reports:

12MonthSimulation/WLOutlookSummary