Category: Water Levels
La Niña is no longer in the fall winter forecast
This summer, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 12 month outlook included the probability, but not certainty of La Nina developing in the Fall. We discussed that in our latest newsletter that recently went out. However, in USACE’s new October outlook which came out after the newsletter went to print, “The El Niño Southern Oscillation index is no longer forecasted to develop into a LA Niña for the fall and winter.”
Regional weather prediction has no certainty with so many factors affecting it. For water levels, NOAA’s computer simulation predictions depends on many different inputs, the most important being overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, and rainfall induced runoff. In it’s Oct 12 month outlook, NOAA is saying “[El Niño Southern Oscillatio] or ENSO-neutral conditions exist and the forecast is favoring that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the winter.”
See what the October 2016, 12 month outlook reports:
12MonthSimulation/WLOutlookSummary
A view from the Paris climate talks
Written by Jonathan Scott. Jonathan Scott is a law student and writer living in the United Kingdom.
It’s Friday evening, midway through the COP21 Climate Change Conference, and there’s an event for the young activists assembled to pressure their governments into action. It’s a spoken word night in an extraordinary location.
The old Gare Ornano in the 18th arrondissement opened in 1869, closed in 1934 and has been the site of La Recyclerie, an urban farm and vegan café, since 2014. Picture lots of exposed beams and a loft overlooking the main, cafeteria-style hall, with stations to scrap your food waste into the composter and no plastic allowed. There’s a queue outside, filled with Australian, Dutch and American activists arriving late. A man tries to sell fruit and beads without much luck. (I didn’t realize it that evening, but the garden outside is built in the old, unused train tracks running into the converted station, part of a network of reclaimed train corridors throughout Paris.) Read More
Confused by the El Niño weather effect on lake levels for Huron Michigan?
Post updated January 19, 2016 and noted inside
El Niño is a weather pattern created from the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean producing warmer than normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Even though it occurs at the equator, it produces weather conditions globally – including in the Great Lakes Region.
Water levels are impacted by many variables including short term weather like El Niño and longer term climate conditions. It is important to understand both.
Weather Vs. Climate
- Weather is what you might see outside on any given day, while climate is the average of that weather over a longer time period.
- “Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”
Long term outlook – According to most scientists water levels for Lake Huron-Michigan are likely to continue to decline over the longer term due largely to climate change – however, short-term variations of extreme highs due to flashier storms are possible.